Generated by scripts/03_qa.py on 2026-11-12 10:50. 33 PASS, 0 FAIL, 0 SKIP, 1 MANUAL, 2 FLAG.
Status key: PASS automated check passed · FAIL automated check failed · MANUAL checked by a person in a browser (cannot be automated) · FLAG a number that is partial or unverified; quoted for context only, never used in a calculation · SKIP check could not run.
| ID | Check | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Raw files match SHA-256 recorded in data/raw/MANIFEST.json | PASS | 13 files; mismatches: none |
| S2 | No partial/unverified source number is used in any calculation | PASS | 19 logged claims; verified 17, partial 1, unverified 1 (context only) |
| T1 | HSUS Z1-19 transcription: each year's colony values sum to the printed total | PASS | 16 year columns checked; mismatched: none |
| T2 | SlaveVoyages copy: decade rows sum to the web page's Totals row (10 columns) | PASS | mismatched: none |
| T3 | Per-state census series sums vs OFFICIAL national totals (1860 Census intro p. viii), /dev/ < 0.5% | PASS | 1790: 697,624 vs 697,897 (-0.04%); 1800: 893,308 vs 893,041 (+0.03%); 1810: 1,188,487 vs 1,191,364 (-0.24%); 1820: 1,531,490 vs 1,538,038 (-0.43%); 1830: 2,009,017 vs 2,009,043 (-0.00%); 1840: 2,487,381 vs 2,487,455 (-0.00%); 1850: 3,204,241 vs 3,204,313 (-0.00%); 1860: 3,953,760 vs 3,953,760 (+0.00%) |
| T3b | 1860 national total reproduced exactly (3,953,760) | PASS | 3,953,760 |
| T4 | CRS Table 1: 50 state rows + D.C. sum to the U.S. Total row (total acres and federal acres) | PASS | states 51; total 2,271,343,360 vs 2,271,343,360; federal 615,203,294 vs 615,203,294 |
| T5 | Census of Agriculture Table 45: legal-status acres sum to land in farms (US and every state without withheld cells) | PASS | US gap 0 ac; 47 states exact; 3 states with (D) cells imputed: Alaska, New Hampshire, Rhode Island |
| T6 | NASS: state $/acre weighted by 2022 land in farms reproduces the published US average within 5% | PASS | weighted 4,311 vs published 4,350 $/acre (-0.9%) |
| T7 | Middle Passage mortality: estimates vs documented voyages agree within 3 percentage points | PASS | estimates 17.7% vs documented 16.1% (n=1756 voyages) |
| L1 | Craemer (2015): '$5.9 to $14.2 trillion' present in saved abstract | PASS | data/raw/craemer2015_repec.html |
| L2 | Hacker (2020): 'approximately 10 million slaves' and '410 billion hours' present in saved article | PASS | data/raw/hacker2020_pmc.html |
| L3 | Evans (1962) quoting De Bow: 1850 occupation counts present in saved PDF | PASS | missing: none |
| L4 | US DOT VSL $14.2M (2025): site blocks scripts; verified manually in a browser on 2026-11-12 | MANUAL | see data/manual/source_verification_log.csv V13 |
| L7 | Census of Agriculture: rented/leased land 345,889,019 ac (39% of 880,100,848) present in source | PASS | 39.3% |
| V17 | About 1 million people forcibly moved interstate 1790-1860 (~1000000) | FLAG | UNVERIFIED: Quoted in METHODOLOGY for context only; not used in calculations |
| V18 | About 50000 people reshipped from the Caribbean to North America 1701-75 (~50000) | FLAG | PARTIAL: Partial period; secondary; not used in calculations |
| M1 | Annual interpolated series equals the census value at every census year and state | PASS | mismatches: none |
| M2 | No negative populations; series spans labor_start..labor_end | PASS | years 1619-1865 |
| M3 | Wage scaling: 1860 unskilled $/hr consistent with MeasuringWorth 1860 production-worker comp ($0.08, cents-rounded) | PASS | model $0.0777/hr; real wages all > 0: True |
| M4a | PV at r=0 equals the undiscounted constant-dollar total | PASS | $750,408,474,735 |
| M4b | PV strictly increases with the interest rate | PASS | |
| M4c | Sum of state values equals the national PV at every rate (units/totals) | PASS | all rates |
| M5 | Sensitivity band ordering low <= base <= high at every rate | PASS | |
| M6 | Cross-check vs Hacker (2020): total hours within +/-25% of 410 billion | PASS | model 353 billion hours (-14%) |
| M7 | Benchmark: Craemer-style rebuild within a factor of 2 of his published $5.9-14.2T | PASS | $3.87T (2009$) |
| M8 | Middle Passage: embarked >= disembarked in every decade; overall mortality 5-30% | PASS | 17.7% |
| G1 | Land purchase invariants (cost<=value, cost+unspent=value, cost=acres*price, tier capacity, tier order, pct<=1) | PASS | 51 states x 11 rates x 2 modes; violations: none |
| G2 | Federal land and tribal/trust farmland are never bought | PASS | violations: none |
| G3 | 'All states, same share' mode buys the same fraction of purchasable land in every state | PASS | fractions at last rate: [1.0] |
| X1 | Lives-lost VSL total = deaths x VSL ($14.2M) | PASS | 83,638 x $14.2M = $1.19T |
| X2 | Deaths equal embarked - disembarked (SlaveVoyages) | PASS | 83,638 |
| M9-0 | Model PV reproduced independently by QA at r=0% | PASS | $0.750T |
| M9-0.01 | Model PV reproduced independently by QA at r=1% | PASS | $5.045T |
| M9-0.03 | Model PV reproduced independently by QA at r=3% | PASS | $331.906T |
| M10 | PV scales exactly linearly with participation (unit consistency) | PASS |
| Real rate | Change | Base PV | New PV | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | participation 0.55 | $0.75T | $0.63T | 0.85x |
| 0% | participation 0.75 | $0.75T | $0.87T | 1.15x |
| 0% | hours 2,500 | $0.75T | $0.63T | 0.83x |
| 0% | hours 3,500 | $0.75T | $0.88T | 1.17x |
| 0% | wage x0.6 (Southern farm-labor discount) | $0.75T | $0.45T | 0.60x |
| 0% | maintenance deducted 30% | $0.75T | $0.53T | 0.70x |
| 0% | start 1776 (Craemer window) | $0.75T | $0.72T | 0.96x |
| 0% | pre-1774 real wage x0.5 | $0.75T | $0.74T | 0.98x |
| 1% | participation 0.55 | $5.05T | $4.27T | 0.85x |
| 1% | participation 0.75 | $5.05T | $5.82T | 1.15x |
| 1% | hours 2,500 | $5.05T | $4.20T | 0.83x |
| 1% | hours 3,500 | $5.05T | $5.89T | 1.17x |
| 1% | wage x0.6 (Southern farm-labor discount) | $5.05T | $3.03T | 0.60x |
| 1% | maintenance deducted 30% | $5.05T | $3.53T | 0.70x |
| 1% | start 1776 (Craemer window) | $5.05T | $4.57T | 0.91x |
| 1% | pre-1774 real wage x0.5 | $5.05T | $4.82T | 0.96x |
| 3% | participation 0.55 | $331.91T | $280.84T | 0.85x |
| 3% | participation 0.75 | $331.91T | $382.97T | 1.15x |
| 3% | hours 2,500 | $331.91T | $276.59T | 0.83x |
| 3% | hours 3,500 | $331.91T | $387.22T | 1.17x |
| 3% | wage x0.6 (Southern farm-labor discount) | $331.91T | $199.14T | 0.60x |
| 3% | maintenance deducted 30% | $331.91T | $232.33T | 0.70x |
| 3% | start 1776 (Craemer window) | $331.91T | $202.01T | 0.61x |
| 3% | pre-1774 real wage x0.5 | $331.91T | $268.79T | 0.81x |
Interest-rate sensitivity (all rates, with the participation/hours band) is in data/processed/summary_by_rate.csv and METHODOLOGY.md §5.
Every cited number, where it was checked and how: data/manual/source_verification_log.csv.
| ID | Claim | Status | Where checked | Used in calculation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| V01 | Embarked for mainland North America 1501-1866 (estimates) | verified | data/manual/slavevoyages_estimates_mainland_na_by_decade.csv (copied from web form 2026-11-12; decade rows sum to page Totals row) (auto (T2)) | yes |
| V02 | Disembarked in mainland North America (estimates) | verified | same as V01 (auto (T2)) | yes |
| V03 | Documented-voyage mortality mainland N. America | verified | data/raw/tastdb-exp-2019.csv MJSELIMP1=20000 (auto (T7)) | no (cross-check) |
| V04 | Colonial Black population by colony 1630-1780 | verified | data/raw/hsus_colonial_chZ.pdf page index 15 (scan) (visual 2026-11-12 + auto column-sum check (T1)) | yes |
| V05 | Enslaved population by state 1790-1860 | verified | data/raw/wikipedia_...wikitext (auto (T3 vs official national totals)) | yes |
| V06 | Official national slave totals 1790-1860 (1860 = 3953760) | verified | data/raw/census1860_slaves_intro.pdf page index 6 (scan) (visual 2026-11-12) | yes (QA reference) |
| V07 | Unskilled labor cost index 1774-1940 and production-worker hourly comp 1790- | verified | data/raw/mw_uswage.html (auto (parsed; M3)) | yes |
| V08 | CPI 1774-2025 (2025 = 321.94) | verified | data/raw/mw_uscpi.html (auto (parsed)) | yes |
| V09 | Farm real estate $/acre by state 2025; US average 4350 | verified | data/raw/land0825.txt (auto (T6 weighted-average check)) | yes |
| V10 | Farmland by legal status by state 2022 (US non-family corporate 16586984 of 880100848 acres) | verified | data/raw/coa2022_usv1.txt (auto (T5 category sums)) | yes |
| V11 | Rented or leased land in farms 2022 = 345889019 acres (39%) | verified | data/raw/coa2022_usv1.txt line ~1490 (auto (L7)) | no (context) |
| V12 | Total and federal acres by state (US 2271343360 / 615203294) | verified | data/raw/crs_R42346_federal_land_ownership.html (auto (T4 sums = US row)) | yes |
| V13 | Value of a statistical life 2025 = $14.2 million | verified | https://www.transportation.gov/office-policy/transportation-policy/revised-departmental-guidance-on-valuation-of-a-statistical-life-in-economic-analysis (browser 2026-11-12 (text: 'VSL estimate of $14.2 million for analyses using a base year of 2025')) | yes (item 5 only) |
| V14 | Craemer 2015 PV of slave labor $5.9 to $14.2 trillion (2009$) | verified | data/raw/craemer2015_repec.html (auto (L1)) | no (benchmark) |
| V15 | About 10 million people enslaved in the US 1619-1865; 410 billion hours of labor | verified | data/raw/hacker2020_pmc.html (auto (L2; M6 hours cross-check)) | no (benchmark) |
| V16 | 1850 enslaved by occupation (cotton 1815000; tobacco 350000; sugar 150000; rice 125000; hemp 60000; towns 400000) | verified (secondary quote of De Bow) | data/raw/nber_c0606_evans1962.pdf (auto (L3)) | display only |
| V17 | About 1 million people forcibly moved interstate 1790-1860 | unverified | not checked against a primary or scholarly source (none) | no |
| V18 | About 50000 people reshipped from the Caribbean to North America 1701-75 | partial | web search summary only; book not consulted (none) | no |
| V19 | Tennessee 1790 (Southwest Territory) 3417 excluded from census 'All States' 694207 | verified | wikitext table (auto (T3 note)) | yes |